Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years in the third quarter, led by a rebound in domestic demand that may ease concern of a return to recession next year.
Gross domestic product rose at an annual 4.8 percent pace, more than the forecasts of all 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, after a 2.7 percent gain in the second quarter, Cabinet Office figures showed today in Tokyo. It was the second straight advance after the nation’s deepest postwar recession.
Faster expansion of the world’s second-largest economy underscores a strengthening global recovery, after reports last week showed accelerating Chinese industrial production and a return to growth in the euro region. At the same time, Japan’s policy makers need to maintain monetary and fiscal stimulus to buttress the rebound, Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan said.
“The turnaround in public investment has definitely contributed to the rebound in GDP, so if they do start to cut it’ll weigh on growth,” said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief Japan economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo.
The yen initially rose, before paring its gains and trading at 89.55 per dollar at 4:16 p.m. in Tokyo, from 89.60 before the release. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.2 percent. Concern about the economy’s prospects has weighed on equities, with the benchmark gauge dropping 1.7 percent since the end of June even as companies reported earnings gains.
Domestic Demand
The median estimate of economists was for a 2.9 percent annualized expansion. From the previous quarter, the economy grew 1.2 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, more than the 0.7 percent median forecast. Domestic demand accounted for more than half of the increase.
Capital spending climbed 1.6 percent, more than three times the pace projected by analysts, after its longest rout since at least 1980. Business investment accounts for about 15 percent of the economy and drove more than a third of Japan’s growth between 2002 and 2007.
Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said over the weekend at a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in Singapore that the economy remains “worrisome” and another supplementary budget is “probably” warranted.
Kan said after the report that while capital spending is showing signs of bottoming, downside risks to the economy must be watched. He also predicted, in a news conference in Tokyo, that the Bank of Japan won’t alter its accommodative stance. The BOJ last month kept its benchmark interest rate near zero.
Idle Factories
One third of Japan’s factories still sit idle, forcing firms to delay hiring and investment that would help to sustain the revival.
Consumer spending, which makes up about 60 percent of the economy, climbed 0.7 percent, fueled by government incentives to purchase energy-efficient cars and appliances.
Today’s GDP figures were leaked by Trade Minister Masayuki Naoshima at a meeting of oil executives almost an hour before their release. Naoshima later apologized, telling Bloomberg News he didn’t know when the data were due to be published.
Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan inherited policies that helped prop up spending at home at the cost of increasing a debt that’s approaching double the size of GDP. The DPJ itself pledges to boost spending and cut taxes, even as tax revenue declines, raising concern that Japan’s fiscal position will deteriorate further.
Investors’ Trust
The price of hedging against losses on $10 million of the country’s bonds with credit-default swaps more than doubled this month from August to as much as $76,160 a year. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said last week that “maintaining the trust of investors in the government bond market is our priority.”
“The problem is that you can’t expand fiscal spending forever because we’ve got this fiscal deficit to worry about,” said Shirakawa at Credit Suisse. “They’re concerned about the economy on the one hand, on the other they’re concerned about the deficit.”
Stimulus from abroad also spurred Japan’s growth last quarter. Exports increased 6.4 percent from the previous three months, the Cabinet Office said.
China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) in government spending on building projects and household subsidies helped Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. drain stockpiles and return to profit last quarter. Honda Motor Co. last month tripled its full-year profit forecast because of Chinese sales.
Lost Ground
Japan’s expansion since March doesn’t make up the ground lost during the previous four quarters of contraction, when the economy shrank to its 2003 size. Industrial production is still about 20 percent below last year’s level and the slump in domestic demand has depressed consumer prices, which have dropped for seven months.
The Bank of Japan last month forecast deflation will persist through fiscal 2011, leaving little room to raise the benchmark rate from 0.1 percent. Central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa on Nov. 7 pledged to maintain an “extremely accommodative monetary environment.”
“Manufacturers are saddled with massive overcapacity so you can’t expect a strong recovery for quite some time. That’s a given,” Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo, said before today’s report. “That means this initial bounce-back in the economy won’t really accelerate.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net; Tatsuo Ito in Tokyo at tito2@bloomberg.net
Gross domestic product rose at an annual 4.8 percent pace, more than the forecasts of all 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, after a 2.7 percent gain in the second quarter, Cabinet Office figures showed today in Tokyo. It was the second straight advance after the nation’s deepest postwar recession.
Faster expansion of the world’s second-largest economy underscores a strengthening global recovery, after reports last week showed accelerating Chinese industrial production and a return to growth in the euro region. At the same time, Japan’s policy makers need to maintain monetary and fiscal stimulus to buttress the rebound, Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan said.
“The turnaround in public investment has definitely contributed to the rebound in GDP, so if they do start to cut it’ll weigh on growth,” said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief Japan economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo.
The yen initially rose, before paring its gains and trading at 89.55 per dollar at 4:16 p.m. in Tokyo, from 89.60 before the release. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.2 percent. Concern about the economy’s prospects has weighed on equities, with the benchmark gauge dropping 1.7 percent since the end of June even as companies reported earnings gains.
Domestic Demand
The median estimate of economists was for a 2.9 percent annualized expansion. From the previous quarter, the economy grew 1.2 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, more than the 0.7 percent median forecast. Domestic demand accounted for more than half of the increase.
Capital spending climbed 1.6 percent, more than three times the pace projected by analysts, after its longest rout since at least 1980. Business investment accounts for about 15 percent of the economy and drove more than a third of Japan’s growth between 2002 and 2007.
Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said over the weekend at a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in Singapore that the economy remains “worrisome” and another supplementary budget is “probably” warranted.
Kan said after the report that while capital spending is showing signs of bottoming, downside risks to the economy must be watched. He also predicted, in a news conference in Tokyo, that the Bank of Japan won’t alter its accommodative stance. The BOJ last month kept its benchmark interest rate near zero.
Idle Factories
One third of Japan’s factories still sit idle, forcing firms to delay hiring and investment that would help to sustain the revival.
Consumer spending, which makes up about 60 percent of the economy, climbed 0.7 percent, fueled by government incentives to purchase energy-efficient cars and appliances.
Today’s GDP figures were leaked by Trade Minister Masayuki Naoshima at a meeting of oil executives almost an hour before their release. Naoshima later apologized, telling Bloomberg News he didn’t know when the data were due to be published.
Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan inherited policies that helped prop up spending at home at the cost of increasing a debt that’s approaching double the size of GDP. The DPJ itself pledges to boost spending and cut taxes, even as tax revenue declines, raising concern that Japan’s fiscal position will deteriorate further.
Investors’ Trust
The price of hedging against losses on $10 million of the country’s bonds with credit-default swaps more than doubled this month from August to as much as $76,160 a year. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said last week that “maintaining the trust of investors in the government bond market is our priority.”
“The problem is that you can’t expand fiscal spending forever because we’ve got this fiscal deficit to worry about,” said Shirakawa at Credit Suisse. “They’re concerned about the economy on the one hand, on the other they’re concerned about the deficit.”
Stimulus from abroad also spurred Japan’s growth last quarter. Exports increased 6.4 percent from the previous three months, the Cabinet Office said.
China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) in government spending on building projects and household subsidies helped Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. drain stockpiles and return to profit last quarter. Honda Motor Co. last month tripled its full-year profit forecast because of Chinese sales.
Lost Ground
Japan’s expansion since March doesn’t make up the ground lost during the previous four quarters of contraction, when the economy shrank to its 2003 size. Industrial production is still about 20 percent below last year’s level and the slump in domestic demand has depressed consumer prices, which have dropped for seven months.
The Bank of Japan last month forecast deflation will persist through fiscal 2011, leaving little room to raise the benchmark rate from 0.1 percent. Central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa on Nov. 7 pledged to maintain an “extremely accommodative monetary environment.”
“Manufacturers are saddled with massive overcapacity so you can’t expect a strong recovery for quite some time. That’s a given,” Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo, said before today’s report. “That means this initial bounce-back in the economy won’t really accelerate.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net; Tatsuo Ito in Tokyo at tito2@bloomberg.net
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