Published: 17/11/2009
Bangkok Post
The leaders of Pacific nations have declared that the "non-negotiable deadline" for a new climate-change agreement is not just negotiable, but barely even exists. Plans to forge a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen next month have been shaky for weeks. It has now become obvious that the Copenhagen conference cannot succeed.
The ultimate deal-breakers were the United States and Chinese presidents. Barack Obama and Hu Jintao lowered the bar for Copenhagen so far that it is like starting all over again.
The iron deadline presented by the Copenhagen conference has been troublesome for some time. At the two-week Bangkok meeting on climate change in October, the squabbling over both goals and methods raised serious questions about whether to continue the talks at all. The following meeting in Barcelona, once again gathering thousands of government negotiators, NGO activists and outside experts, made no noticeable progress.
The deal fell apart, apparently irretrievably, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Singapore. Mr Obama and Mr Hu met amiably enough on the issue. But whether the disagreement is friendly or hostile hardly matters. The world's too biggest polluters simply do not see eye to eye on how to forge a worldwide deal to try to contain man-made pollution and carbon emissions.
In retrospect, the probable failure of the Copenhagen conference was almost a foregone conclusion. The former chief scientist of the British government, Sir David King, put it succinctly when he said recently that "Copenhagen has come a year too early". Mr Obama has failed for obvious reasons to line up his own Congress behind a global plan to fight global warming, and in fact the lukewarm US support for such a plan has recently waned. China, too, while it has recently become an enthusiastic supporter of worldwide action against carbon emissions, still maintains that it should have the right to continue its own industrial expansion.
In essence, then, the Obama-Hu agreement that a deal at Copenhagen is likely impossible merely confirms the old splits and the festering, perhaps irreconcilable positions.
On one side, the US and developed nations support mandatory reductions of carbon emissions, but insist that the developing world must also participate. On the other side, China and the developing world - Thailand included - strongly support emission controls, but only, or mostly, by the developed nations.
Governments will be loathe to cancel the Copenhagen conference which begins in three weeks. According to Mr Obama, the Denmark meeting will go ahead but with hugely reduced ambitions. He said he and Mr Hu now hope that participants will salvage something. The way to do that, he said, is to demote the Copenhagen conference. Instead of a grand finale resulting in global agreement, it now will be considered as the first of yet another series of meetings aimed at replacing the mostly unsuccessful Kyoto Protocol.
Sometimes one must accept what is available. Hope still rests on Mr Obama to fulfil his promise to bring the United States into the world community and forge a legally binding agreement to battle climate change.
As talks go forward, China, India and other successfully developing countries will have to step up to take responsibility for doing their part as well.
Pessimists may disagree, but in this case it is better to hold off until a truly worldwide pact can be negotiated.
Bangkok Post
The leaders of Pacific nations have declared that the "non-negotiable deadline" for a new climate-change agreement is not just negotiable, but barely even exists. Plans to forge a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen next month have been shaky for weeks. It has now become obvious that the Copenhagen conference cannot succeed.
The ultimate deal-breakers were the United States and Chinese presidents. Barack Obama and Hu Jintao lowered the bar for Copenhagen so far that it is like starting all over again.
The iron deadline presented by the Copenhagen conference has been troublesome for some time. At the two-week Bangkok meeting on climate change in October, the squabbling over both goals and methods raised serious questions about whether to continue the talks at all. The following meeting in Barcelona, once again gathering thousands of government negotiators, NGO activists and outside experts, made no noticeable progress.
The deal fell apart, apparently irretrievably, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Singapore. Mr Obama and Mr Hu met amiably enough on the issue. But whether the disagreement is friendly or hostile hardly matters. The world's too biggest polluters simply do not see eye to eye on how to forge a worldwide deal to try to contain man-made pollution and carbon emissions.
In retrospect, the probable failure of the Copenhagen conference was almost a foregone conclusion. The former chief scientist of the British government, Sir David King, put it succinctly when he said recently that "Copenhagen has come a year too early". Mr Obama has failed for obvious reasons to line up his own Congress behind a global plan to fight global warming, and in fact the lukewarm US support for such a plan has recently waned. China, too, while it has recently become an enthusiastic supporter of worldwide action against carbon emissions, still maintains that it should have the right to continue its own industrial expansion.
In essence, then, the Obama-Hu agreement that a deal at Copenhagen is likely impossible merely confirms the old splits and the festering, perhaps irreconcilable positions.
On one side, the US and developed nations support mandatory reductions of carbon emissions, but insist that the developing world must also participate. On the other side, China and the developing world - Thailand included - strongly support emission controls, but only, or mostly, by the developed nations.
Governments will be loathe to cancel the Copenhagen conference which begins in three weeks. According to Mr Obama, the Denmark meeting will go ahead but with hugely reduced ambitions. He said he and Mr Hu now hope that participants will salvage something. The way to do that, he said, is to demote the Copenhagen conference. Instead of a grand finale resulting in global agreement, it now will be considered as the first of yet another series of meetings aimed at replacing the mostly unsuccessful Kyoto Protocol.
Sometimes one must accept what is available. Hope still rests on Mr Obama to fulfil his promise to bring the United States into the world community and forge a legally binding agreement to battle climate change.
As talks go forward, China, India and other successfully developing countries will have to step up to take responsibility for doing their part as well.
Pessimists may disagree, but in this case it is better to hold off until a truly worldwide pact can be negotiated.
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